Rant 8 November 11, 2008

Some random thoughts.

Mrs. Hansford would have been pleased to see the bums thrown out.

We just witnessed an historic event and one that I strongly felt we very much needed as a society.  I also thought that I would experience some jubilation on Obama’s triumph.  But instead I find myself strangely pensive and focused not on elation but concerned at just how tough a job President Obama has in front of him.

He should not have won.  A half black, first generation son of an immigrant who’s father abandoned him to return to Africa and who is saddled with the name Barak Hussein Obama is not supposed to win an election for President of the United States.  Initially I thought that the Hispanic vote would be critical.  I was wrong again.  While Obama’s differential performance with black and Hispanic voters was important, his ability to target and motivate the young was even greater.  His large plurality among these groups accounts for most if not all of the 6% point margin of victory in the popular vote; it was not the decisive factor.

Even with this advantage, Obama had to run even with McCain among all other voter groups in order to win.  He did. but he had some help.  McCain took some unexpected body shots and experienced some self-inflected wounds. 

The economy exploding near the end of the campaign gave Obama a boost by highlighting once again the manifest failures of the highly unpopular (in some sectors) Bush administration.  This put almost every other issue on the back burner.  Bush’s public perception was and is so bad that he is the first sitting President in history not to make a single campaign appearance on behalf of any candidate from his own party.  McCain could simply not escape from Bush’s shadow. 

In retrospect McCain’s selection of Palin as a running mate was viewed by many as a cynical attempt to appeal to the prejudices of disaffected Hillary Clinton supporters.  Exit polls have shown that many independent and undecided voters viewed Palin’s selection as an indication of poor judgment by McCain and Palin did not seem to have made much of a difference with Clinton supporters.  The McCain camp’s decision to go negative in its adds also seems to have backfired with many voters and ended up costing him support outside the hard core of the party.

Take these factors out and the election result easily could have been reversed.

But it was not reversed and I think one of the biggest reasons is the man himself.  Obama is either the greatest natural born politician the world has ever seen or his behavior and demeanor actually reflect a superior intelligence, judgment and strength of character that are truly exceptional.  I fear it is the former but like to hope that it is the latter.  But we will certainly see.

President Obama faces daunting challenges and whatever the historic character of his election, it does not constitute an over-riding mandate to govern like those given to FDR or Johnson after the Kennedy assignation.  His performance in office will show just how exceptional he is when it comes to the real business of leading a troubled country.

Perhaps the problems that we now face as Americans cannot be solved.  Already articles are appearing that show how Obama’s policies are unlikely to be effective.  Whatever the truth of things I know that problems are not solved expect through creativity, dedication and effort.  Lincoln said that a “house divided against itself could not stand.”  Solutions will only come if we are able to build a national consensus toward improving our society.  But the solutions have to come with realistic economic expectations.  No society has long endured as a leader without a strong economic base.  Fortunately these issues are all related.  If we can avoid foreign entanglements, reduce our dependence on foreign oil and build an efficient health care system, we have a chance of rebuilding a vibrant and growing economy.

Solutions will not be built solely on the backs of the wealthiest Americans although they are the one group which has benefited from past failed policies.  Kennedy said, “Ask not what your country can do for you but what you can do for your country.”  The times require that all Americans make sacrifices toward our national purpose.  Obama may not be the leader to accomplish the rebuilding of this nation but for my money he is the first and only political figure of a generation who is attempting to build bridges across the chasms that divide us as a people rather than trying to exploit those divisions.

Chairman Mao (original – Lao Tzu) said, “A journey of 10,000 miles begins with the first step.”  At least with President Obama we will begin.  And I think he knows the direction he wants to go.