“Abandon hope, all ye who enter here”;
I think Dante got that right. The worst thing is not whatever we are
experiencing at the time, however bad that may be, but the loss of any belief
or illusion that things can ever be better. I had some firsthand experience
with a loss of hope just before I first got sober but that’s another
story. Mr. Alighieri was talking about the entrance to Hell but he could
just as well have been talking about our
US election process. Or at least that is what I thought when I
wrote to you last.
Last night I thought McCain had
practically given the November election to the Democrats in his speech after
locking up the Republican nomination when he apparently went out of his way to
alienate union members (12.1% of the workforce) and Americans without health
insurance (16+% of population). But then Clinton won Ohio and Texas which creates a situation where it does not look like
the Democratic nominee can be determined until the Party Convention, scheduled
for late August in Denver .
This means that Obama and Clinton will be cutting each other to pieces for the
next few months and doing damage to either of their chances for success in the
general election. Bush has the lowest approval rating of any President in
recent memory and McCain seems to be embracing him. Once again, the
Democrats appear to have found a way not to win an unloseable election.
One would think that the national committee would be tired of snatching defeat
from the jaws of victory, but apparently not.
After I sent my last, somewhat bleak,
note out I received some very interesting replies. I should have known my
friends better; after all, I selected them. Almost all of you had
something positive to say and something hopeful to offer. Perhaps the
strongest was from my friend John Cahill, (very American even with the most
Irish of names; (although the quick anger genes seem to have come down to him
unvitiated).
John is somewhat of an inspirational
person himself. After being caught up in the international telecom
meltdown that affected many of us, he decided to use the opportunity to pursue
a dream and entered a chef’s academy. After several almost successful
near-amputations, he decided he really did not want to be a Yakuza wannabe; so
he ended up doing volunteer work assisting wounded soldiers returning from Iraq
with their rehabilitation at the military’s Walter
Reed Hospital . I
remember his relating to me his wonder at the positive attitudes of the
patients and their abiding belief in the honour that comes with defending their
country. He also shared his frustration with the seemingly pointless
policies of the political leadership. I could not help but think that any
country that could continue to raise young people who were willing to voluntarily
place themselves in harms way and possibly die in the defense of its beliefs
and preserve its way of life must be doing something right. No matter how
wrongheaded the policy may be; the qualities of the men and women who are
willing to serve in our Armed Forces are deserving of admiration and
respect. Not all is well with America’s military and they have been
stressed by massive call-ups of reserve units, extended tours and multiple
deployments without mentioning questions about policy goals and mission
definition or lack of public support for the war in general. Suicide
rates are twice the historic levels and mental health problems have
dramatically increased, particularly among combat veterans. I do not
suppose that most of the world views America ’s military with admiration but I
continue to marvel at the level of dedication and motivation its members, and
particularly enlisted personnel, consistently demonstrate. John’s
volunteer experiences led him to return to school and he has subsequently launched
a successful second career in health services. Just about as far from
telecom sales as you can get. That took some drive and dedication as
well.
I have come full circle in terms of
pride in county. Most of my adult life has been spent in some form of
travel internationally and I have gone from feeling like the ugly American in
the 60’s to feeling pretty good about America ’s economic resurgence and the
ending of the Cold War to once again feeling somewhat ashamed of what we have
done and are doing in the world. Obama must have been reading my mail
when he spoke to his supporter after
Clinton’s victory speech in
Ohio and before the results in
Texas were known. He also spoke to me directly when he said his
campaign had brought some “life-long skeptics” back into the political
process. Following is a link to that speech. For some reason you
cannot click on it directly but have to paste it into the address bar.
It has been a long time since I
responded positively to a politician. I hope Obama can in fact beat
the Clinton political machine and
offer us a real choice in November. Earlier in the campaign, I had
dismissed him as having no chance of election. This was in part due to
prejudice of the electorate and in part because of his lack of
experience. These are still concerns, but as John Cahill pointed out,
even if he failed at every last thing he tried to accomplish as President, how
much worse could the results be than what we have already experienced under
Bush? Is it not better to try and fail in the pursuit of noble ends than
to settle for ignoble ones? I guess time will tell, but I think I do know
that now is not the time to stand still. I think inaction will end up
with disastrous results. It looks to me like many of my fellow countrymen
feel the same way and are looking for a way to change our course and direction.
My friend, Graeme Lynch, says that what
we are seeing happening to the US is simply a repeat of an historical cycle and
that our current distress is the result of the Rise and Fall of the American
Empire. There is undoubtedly some truth in this but I heard it once
before in the late 70’s. Then we were supposed to have been eclipsed by
the Japanese. But the US was able to reassert economic leadership
through massively increased productivity. At that time the Japanese held
large reserves of US currency and the pundits proclaimed that America would end
up being bought by its own money. Graeme points out that the Chinese and
the Arabs are now holding trillions of US dollars and may try to do the same
thing. But it did not work out so well for our friends in Japan and I do
not think it will be so easy this time either. However it is foolish for
America to ignore the risk that the weakness of the dollar has caused.
Graeme also points out the obvious fact that US dependence of Middle East
oil is the both the biggest problem and the biggest opportunity we confront
internationally. Rather than trying to buy the USA , the Chinese, with
their own shortage of domestic oil would be better off to use their 1.5
Trillion to capture global leadership in alternative energy technology.
They could use the openness of Universities in the West to short circuit the
research and development that would be necessary to accomplish this.
Graeme correctly says Bush could have gone down as one of the greatest
Presidents ever if he had truly embraced the development of alternative energy
sources and technologies and started us on the road to independence from
foreign oil. He didn’t and isn’t. That opportunity is still there
and could be the underpinning of a new economic resurgence of America.
Long-term this would allow us to thumb our noses at the oil-rich nations that
are currently encouraging Islamic extremism. Another friend, Derek Nelson
sent me a clip from the UK commenting on Islamic fundamentalists and as that
clip said; “The Western democracies could simply allow the Middle East to
revert to the eighth century and good riddance”. There is more to be said
about this but that is the subject of another rant.
I think the last US surge in economic
wealth creation came about in large measure because of US leadership in the
development of computer technology which allowed us to harvest large
productivity gains through information use. Our next resurgence will
probably not have as clear a technological base but I have observed that wealth
creation is almost perfectly correlated with a society’s degree of individual
liberty. Now that Hong Kong
is on the way out, the US is
probably the freest economic society in the world both in terms of individual
liberty and freedom from regulation. The power of hundreds of million
individual daily decisions on how to improve efficiency and quality will always
produce the best economic performance. I think it is way too early to
count the US out in terms of leadership
in future wealth creation. However, like all things a strength taken to
the extreme becomes a weakness and that weakness for the US is the health care sector.
Here, not only regulation, but direct intervention is required in my view.
I think McCain has
painted himself into a corner on this issue by claiming that the US has the
best health care in the world and government should simply not interfere with
that reality. I think this is just clearly wrong. It is undoubtedly
clear that the best health care in the world is available in the US but it
equally clear that it is untrue that we have the best health care system in the
world. All you have to do is look at the comparative statistics for
longevity and disease among the developed nations and it is clear the US is not
leading. Our society lags far behind those of Europe in terms of the
overall health of the citizenry. This is simply a matter of cost.
Excellence in health care in the US is expensive. And is getting worse at
a rate far in excess of inflation. In the long run, the US economy cannot
afford the health care system it has now. Already our percentage of GNP
dedicated to health care is the highest in the world and the gaps appear to be
widening rather than shrinking. A recent new article said; “Health
care reform will be the primary issue in the 2008 presidential election
predicts former Wisconsin governor Tommy Thompson. Thompson, who also is
the former secretary of the United States Health and Human Services Department,
spoke at UW-Stout’s Harvey Hall Friday morning about health care reform and the
role stem cell research might play. “Health care in America is at a
serious crisis. … We have seven years to change health care to save it,”
Thompson said. “Medicare will go broke by 2013.” Over the past few
decades, Congress has been taking money from Medicare to spend in other areas,
he reported. The United States spends $2 trillion per year on health
care, which is 16 percent of the gross national product (GNP). By contrast,
Canada spends 9 percent of GNP and Japan spends 8 percent. By 2013, the United
States is expected to pay $4 trillion a year for health care, or 21 percent of
the GNP.” This simply cannot continue without ruinous results to the
economy.
The medical and legal
professions bare part of the blame, but the biggest culprits are the insurance
companies. Private health care insurers are a cancer feeding on the
American economy. I think it is inevitable that the US will have a single
payer system similar to those in the rest of the developed world before too
long but the transition will be difficulty due to the lobbing power of the
entrenched interests.
US business leaders
already know that health care costs must be controlled. You simply have
to look at what has happened to the US automakers to know how unrestricted health
care costs can destroy competitiveness. It is unclear to me why more
corporate leaders are not supporting reform. It may be that it is simple
selfish interest. Since the wealthy already have the best health care in
the world they may not want to run the risk that their individual standard of
health care might be reduced to the level of what is available to every
American. In any case the current economic difficulties should force
corporate leaders to come to grip with the reality of the disadvantages of the
current system and start pressing for reform. There are other problems
that could undermine a US surge in productivity including a low internal saving
rate, which could lead to lack of investment dollars. However, our
previous experience is that if the engine is running well, the fuel will be
found.
Overall I am much more
upbeat than I was when I wrote the last note. I think there are forces
for change working in the society and that the goals which they seek are the
goals we should be pursuing.
Graeme says that it might
be a good thing if concerns at home cause the US to have less time for overseas
adventures (meddling). I think he is right. The time has come for us to
spend our efforts at improving our own society instead of arrogantly telling
others what is wrong with theirs. We will have to see if our election
process will allow that change to be accomplished through the ballot box.
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